| | Maybe as random as the ellipses comment, though this one will take us down a markedly different path.
It China really, really wanted to develop its western Xinjiang provinces, what form would its plan take?
Obviously, massive capital diversion from the richer costal provinces would be a must; and, in fact, that's something that's taking place right this very moment.
Similarly large investments in infrastructure and education would most likely be in order as well. Once again, Beijing fails to dissappoint.
So, take large amounts of capital, add in rapidly improving infrastructure and education levels, stir vigorously, and you should have the makings of a boom on your hands.
Of course, there's been a whole lot more that's happened in Xinjiang in the past thirty-odd years, some of which might lead a skeptical observer to conclude that Beijing has more in mind than mere economic development. Most interesting has been the significant inflows of Han migrants. In 1978, Hans were a tiny minority of Xinjiang's population. Now they're the majority, and their numbers are still growing rapidly.
And that's why looking at Beijing's Xinjiang policy from a purely economic perspective can't explain everything. Economically speaking, there's no good reason for such large inflows. When the migration began in the late seventies, there wasn't the kind of income gap between Xinjiang and other Chinese provinces that would justify a huge flow of migrants over such a large distance.
Sure, you could make the argument that the immigrants represent an inflow of intellectual capital which would be commensurate with a desire to develop Xinjiang. Somehow, though, I suspect that anyone taking a close look at the demographic numbers for the immigrants (assuming such figures are available outside of Chinese policymaking circles, which they most likely aren't) would find that immigrants to Xinjiang don't represent any kind of significant talent inflow. And if you wanted to import talent, would such a large number really be necessary? You couldn't make due with several tens of thousands?
No, something else is at work here besides simple economics. I'd say the central government has made a strategic decision to permit--indeed, to encourage--large numbers of Han immigrants so as to place Xinjiang ever more firmly under Beijing's thumb, and at the rate things are going, I'd say we'll eventually see the Uighurs as a solid minority in their own land, marginalized and disenfranchised.
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| | Posted 2/27/2007 1:52 PM - 12 Views - 2 eProps - 1 Comment
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